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城市化进程加快和全球气候变暖共同作用下，我国极端降水事件频发，致洪暴雨突发性、极端性、反常性显著增强。为科学分析暴雨对洪水过程的影响及水工程调度的防洪效益，以海河“25·7”区域性大洪水滦河水系为背景，在总结分析暴雨洪水特征的基础上，基于新安江模型构建水文模型体系，结合权重法，量化分析水库群调度的防洪效益及入海水量。结果表明：“25·7”暴雨降水量为122 mm，降水量100 mm以上笼罩面积占流域面积的69.2%，潘家口水库入库洪峰流量达到4 260 m3/s，列1978年建库以来第2位；通过水库群联合调度实施干支流洪水错峰，潘家口水库削峰率超90%，大黑汀水库入库、滦县站洪峰流量分别减少了55.9%、56.6%，有效保证了水库大坝和下游堤防小埝防洪安全；“25·7”洪水共有13.43×108 m3洪量经由滦县站宣泄入海。研究结果有助于量化水库群防洪调度调控效益，为水工程调度方案优选提供参考。
Abstract：The acceleration of urbanization and global warming have led to frequent extreme precipitation events in China. In recent years， the disastrous rainstorms have significantly increased in terms of suddenness， extremity and abnormality. In order to scientifically analyze the impacts of rainstorms on the flood process and the flood control benefits of water engineering projects operation， the Luan River of the Hai River "25·7" regional flood was selected as the research subject. The characteristics of rainstorm and flood in this process were summarized and analyzed. Based on the Xin'anjiang model， a hydrological model system was constructed. And combined with the weight method， the flood control benefits and water discharge into sea were quantitatively analyzed. The results indicated that the precipitation during "25·7" rainstorm was 122 mm， and the area with precipitation exceeding 100 mm accounted for 69.2% of the total area of the basin. The peak flow of the inflow to Panjiakou Reservoir was 4 260 m3/s， ranking second since the reservoir was built in 1978. Through the joint operations of reservoirs， the peak flows of the main stream and tributaries were staggered. The peak flow reduction rate of Panjiakou Reservoir exceeded 90%， and the peak flows of Daheiting Reservoir and Luanxian Station decreased by 55.9% and 56.6% respectively. The flood control safeties of the reservoirs and the downstream embankments were effectively guaranteed. And a total of 13.43×108 m3 of water volume was discharged into the sea through the Luanxian Station during "25·7" flood. The research results are helpful for quantifying the flood control and operation benefits of the reservoir group， and provide a reference for the optimization of water engineering projects operation plans.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:TV87
引用信息:
[1]王丹,杨邦,杨敏,等.海河“25·7”区域性大洪水防洪效益及入海水量分析[J].海河水利().
基金信息:
中国电力建设集团（股份）有限公司核心技术攻关项目“北方地区多尺度流域特大洪水防洪减灾关键技术研究与应用”（DJ-HXGG-2024-09）
2026-09-04
2026-09-04
2026-09-04