海河水利

近年来我国洪水灾害频发，严重威胁国民安全且制约经济社会发展，而洪水风险图作为防洪减灾的重要非工程举措，能够直观呈现出洪水潜在淹没范围内的洪水风险要素随空间分布情况，是洪水风险管控的关键技术手段，其核心目标在于提升保护区洪水预报预警的服务效能与专业化水平。洪水风险图技术路线主要包括洪水分析计算、洪水损失评估计算、避险转移分析、风险图图件绘制等环节。其中，洪水分析计算是最关键环节，关系到后续风险图绘制及其编制成果的合理性与可靠性。选取山东省海河流域徒骇马颊河防洪保护区作为研究案例，运用水动力MIKE软件详细阐述了洪水分析的科学流程与方法，涵盖洪水计算范围界定、洪水量级选定、河道堤防溃口位置布置、软件参数设定，以及洪水计算结果分析与合理性分析等环节。研究旨在为其他地区编制洪水风险图提供参考范例。

In recent years, China has experienced frequent flood disasters, posing serious threats to national security and constraining socio-economic development. Flood risk maps, serving as a vital non-engineering measure for flood control and disaster mitigation, provide a visual representation of the spatial distribution of flood risk elements within potential inundation areas. They constitute a key technical mechanism for flood risk management, primarily aimed at enhancing the service efficacy and specialization level of flood forecasting and early warning in protected zones. The technical framework for developing flood risk maps encompasses flood analysis and calculation, flood loss assessment, evacuation analysis, and the creation of risk map products. Among these, flood analysis and calculation is the most critical component, directly influencing the rationality and reliability of the risk map compilation. Taking the Tuhai-Majia River Flood Control Protection Area in the Haihe River Basin of Shandong Province as a case study, and utilizing Mike hydrodynamic software, the scientific procedure and methodology for flood analysis were detailed. This included the delineation of the flood calculation scope, selection of flood magnitude, placement of river dike breach locations, configuration of software parameters, and the analysis of flood calculation results and their rationality. The findings offered a valuable reference for the compilation of flood risk maps in other regions.